Risk's Place in Decision Rules

Author: Weirich P.

Source: Synthese, Volume 126, Number 3, March 2001 , pp. 427-441(15)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

To handle epistemic and pragmatic risks, Gärdenfors and Sahlin (1982, 1988) design a decision procedure for cases in which probabilities are indeterminate. Their procedure steps outside the traditional expected utility framework. Must it do this? Can the traditional framework handle risk? This paper argues that it can. The key is a comprehensive interpretation of an option's possible outcomes. Taking possible outcomes more broadly than Gärdenfors and Sahlin do, expected utility can give risk its due. In particular, Good's (1952) decision procedure adequately handles indeterminate probabilities and the risks they generate.

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Philosophy Department, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211 U.S.A., E-mail: weirichp@missouri.edu

Publication date: 2001-03-01