Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

Author: Bier V.M.

Source: Risk Analysis, Volume 19, Number 4, August 1999 , pp. 703-710(8)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Keywords: probabilistic risk analysis; subjective judgment; risk-informed regulation; robust Bayesian analysis; human performance; human error; management and organizational factors; corporate culture

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1513 University Avenue, Madison, Wisconsin 53706

Publication date: 1999-08-01