Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

Authors: Jong, Gerard¹; Daly, Andrew; Pieters, Marits; Miller, Stephen; Plasmeijer, Ronald; Hofman, Frank

Source: Transportation, Volume 34, Number 4, July 2007 , pp. 375-395(21)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.

Keywords: Traffic forecasts; Travel demand; Uncertainty; Confidence interval; Simulation

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8

Affiliations: 1: Email: jong@rand.org

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