Does telecommuting reduce vehicle-miles traveled? An aggregate time series analysis for the U.S.

Authors: Sangho Choo¹; Patricia Mokhtarian²; Ilan Salomon³

Source: Transportation, Volume 32, Number 1, January 2005 , pp. 37-64(28)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

. This study examines the impact of telecommuting on passenger vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) through a multivariate time series analysis of aggregate nationwide data spanning 1966–1999 for all variables except telecommuting, and 1988–1998 for telecommuting. The analysis was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, VMT (1966–1999) was modeled as a function of conventional variables representing economic activity, transportation price, transportation supply and socio-demographics. In the second stage, the residuals of the first stage (1988–1998) were modeled as a function of the number of telecommuters. We also assessed the change in annual VMT per telecommuter as well as VMT per telecommuting occasion, for 1998. The models suggest that telecommuting reduces VMT, with 94% confidence. Together with independent external evidence, the results suggest a reduction in annual VMT on the order of 0.8% or less. Even with impacts that small, when informally compared to similar reductions in VMT due to public transit ridership, telecommuting appears to be far more cost-effective in terms of public sector expenditures.

Keywords: aggregate analysis; telecommuting; teleworking; time series analysis; vehicle-miles traveled modeling/forecasting

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-004-3046-7

Affiliations: 1: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA, 2: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, 95616, USA, Email: plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu 3: Leon J. and Alyce K. Ell Professor of Environmental Studies, School of Public Policy and Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, 91905, Israel,

Publication date: 2005-01-01

Does telecommuting reduce vehicle-miles traveled? An aggregate time series analysis for the U.S.

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