Bayesian estimation of multinomial probit models of work trip choice

Authors: Kim Y.¹; Kim T-Y.²; Heo E.³

Source: Transportation, Volume 30, Number 3, August 2003 , pp. 351-365(15)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

In this paper, we estimate a multinomial probit model of work trip mode choice in Seoul, Korea, using the Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling. This method constructs a Markov chain Gibbs sampler that can be used to draw directly from the exact posterior distribution and perform finite sample likelihood inference. We estimate direct and cross-elasticities with respect to travel cost and the value of time. Our results show that travel demands are more sensitive to travel time than travel cost. The cross-elasticity results show that the bus has a greater substitute relation to the subway than the auto (and vice versa) and that an increase in the cost of an auto will increase the demand for bus transport more so than that of the subway.

Keywords: Bayesian approach; Gibbs sampling; multinomial probit; work trip choice model

Language: English

Document Type: Research article

Affiliations: 1: Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, 161 Kajong-Dong, Yusong-Gu, Taejon, 305-350, Korea Republic (Author for correspondence: E-mail: ykim@etri.re.kr) 2: Techno-Economics and Policy Program, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shinlim-Dong, Kwanak-Ku, Seoul, 151-742, Korea Republic 3: School of Civil, Urban and Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shinlim-Dong, Kwanak-Ku, Seoul, 151-742, Korea Republic

Publication date: 2003-08-01