Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation
Source: Natural Hazards, Volume 48, Number 3, March 2009 , pp. 383-398(16)
Abstract:A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency.
Document Type: Research Article
Affiliations: 1: Institute of Stochastics, Ulm University, 89069, Ulm, Germany, Email: email@example.com 2: Munich Reinsurance Company, 80791, Munich, Germany 3: Institute of Stochastics, Ulm University, 89069, Ulm, Germany
Publication date: March 1, 2009