Models of Ground Deformation and Eruption Magnitude from a Deep Source at Popocatepetl Volcano, Central Mexico

Authors: Espíndola, Juan Manuel1; De Lourdes Godinez, Maria2; Espindola, Victor Hugo1

Source: Natural Hazards, Volume 31, Number 1, January 2004 , pp. 191-207(17)

Publisher: Springer

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Popocatepetl volcano in Central Mexico entered its latest stage of activity in late 1994. Due to the nature of its eruptive history and its location in a heavily populated area, it constitutes the highest risk in the cuntry. For this reason the volcano is currently under continuous surveillance; yet the interpretation of the information is carried out mostly on empirical basis and an integrating working model is lacking, at the present. In this paper, models of elastic deformation and mass erupted are developed to estimate the mass erupted according to the observed deformation patterns. We present results obtained from input based upon a gravimetric model of the volcano's internal structure and reasonable physical parameters of the volcanic system. These results are helpful in the planning of deformation and gravimetric observations aimed to forecast a major eruption.

Keywords: Mexican volcanoes; Popocatepetl volcano; deformation in volcanoes; mass erupted

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: 1: Instituto de Geofisica, UNAM, Ciudad Universitaria, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, Mexico 04510, D.F., jmec@servidor., Email: jmec@servidor. 2: Instituto de Geografia, UNAM, Ciudad Universitaria, Av. Universidad 3000, Col. Copilco, Mexico 04510, D.F.

Publication date: January 1, 2004

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