IngentaConnect Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea, Greece Seismicity with Potent...

Authors: Dimitriu P.P.¹; Scordilis E.M.²; Karacostas V.G.²

Source: Natural Hazards, Volume 21, Numbers 2-3, May 2000 , pp. 277-295(19)

Publisher: Springer

Abstract:

Two-dimensional multifractal analysis is performed in a seismic area of Northern Greece responsible for recent strong earthquakes, including the Arnea sequence of May 1995, culminating in a M_w 5.3 event on 4/5/1995. It is found that multifractality gradually increases prior to the major seismic activity and that declusterization replaces clusterization not long before its initialization. The fractal dimensions D(q) (q > 0) abruptly drop for aftershocks, reflecting their very strong spatial clustering. The observed seismicity patterns seem to be compatible with a percolation process. Before the main sequence, the fractal dimension is consistently in the range 1.67–1.96 (standard deviation included). Percolation theory predicts 1.9 for 2D percolation clusters and 1.8 for the backbone of 3D percolation clusters. If the observed gradual increase in multifractality is due to multifractality reaching a maximum prior to the major slip (percolation), this may enable us to roughly estimate its time of occurrence.

Keywords: seismicity; Arnea sequence; multifractals; fractal dimensions; percolation

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Institute of Engineering Seismology & Earthquake Engineering, Thessaloniki, Greece PO Box 53 Finikas, GR-55 102 Thessaloniki, Greece, e-mail: dim@itsak.gr 2: Geophysics Department, Aristotelian University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece

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Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea, Greece Seismicity with Potential Implications for Earthquake Prediction