Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues: Vers un déclin à long terme de la population: discussion des questions pertinentes

Author: Reher, David¹

Source: European Journal of Population/ Revue europenne de Dmographie, Volume 23, Number 2, June 2007 , pp. 189-207(19)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

This paper contains thoughts on the process of imminent population decline under way in much of the developed world and quite possibly in other world regions as well. We are witnessing the beginnings of a vast trend change which promises to bring to a close a period of population growth that has lasted for several centuries. It can be shown that this great change is a byproduct of the demographic transition that unleashed a number of the forces leading to where we are today. The extent to which much of the developing world will follow the reproductive trends of the developed world, with their social and economic implications, is discussed. The decades ahead for much of the world will lead us into mostly uncharted territory that bears few similarities with past periods of population decline. The purpose of this paper is to stimulate reflection and debate on a subject that looms as perhaps the key social issue of the twenty-first century.

Keywords: [Future] population decline; Demographic transition; Fertility; Aging; Developed world; Developing world; Déclin [futur] de la population; Transition démographique; Fécondité; Vieillissement; Monde développé; Monde en développement