Modelling Regional Immigration: Using Stocks to Predict Flows

Authors: Van der Gaag N.¹; Van Wissen L.²

Source: European Journal of Population/ Revue europenne de Dmographie, Volume 18, Number 4, 2002 , pp. 387-409(23)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

This paper explores the feasibility of improving regional international migration assumptions by analysing the relationship between international migration flows and foreign population structures. Regional projection models are discussed and empirically tested using data for Sweden. The results show that regional assumptions on international migration of foreigners could be improved by using the spatial distribution of stocks of foreigners as predictor. Improvements, however, are only minor and do not seem to compensate for the loss in simplicity of the models. This is especially true at the aggregate level of immigrant groups. Only for relatively new immigrant groups, improvements are substantial.

Keywords: international migration; regional projection models; stocks of foreigners; Sweden

Language: English

Document Type: Research article

Affiliations: 1: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, the Netherlands (author for correspondence, e-mail: gaag@nidi.nl) 2: Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, the Netherlands

Publication date: 2002-01-01