A Demographic Model of Measles Epidemics

Authors: Duncan S.R.¹; Scott S.²; Duncan* C.J.³

Source: European Journal of Population/ Revue europenne de Dmographie, Volume 15, Number 2, June 1999 , pp. 185-198(14)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

Liverpool, U.K., 1863--1900, has been used as a model to explore the interaction between measles epidemics and the population dynamics in an overcrowded community with inadequate nutrition using a non-linear model which allows the estimation of certain underlying demographic parameters. The results are consistent with a system that is driven by an oscillation in the transmission parameter that is compounded of an oscillation in autumn temperatures (at the resonant frequency of the system, 2.4 years) and, secondarily, by an oscillation in wheat prices (wavelength = 5.3 years, twice that of the epidemics).

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Department of Engineering Science, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PJ, U.K. 2: School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, U.K. 3: School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, U.K. (Corresponding author: School of Biological Sciences, Derby Building, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, U.K.; Phone: 0151-794-4986; Fax: 0151-794-5094; E-mail: sscott@l

Publication date: 1999-06-01