Bayesian Rules of Updating
Author: Howson, C.
Source: Erkenntnis, Volume 45, Numbers 2-3, 1996 , pp. 195-208(14)
Abstract:This paper discusses the Bayesian updating rules of ordinary and Jeffrey conditionalisation. Their justification has been a topic of interest for the last quarter century, and several strategies proposed. None has been accepted as conclusive, and it is argued here that this is for a good reason; for by extending the domain of the probability function to include propositions describing the agent's present and future degrees of belief one can systematically generate a class of counterexamples to the rules. Dynamic Dutch Book and other arguments for them are examined critically. A concluding discussion attempts to put these results in perspective within the Bayesian approach.
Document Type: Regular Paper
Affiliations: Department of Philosophy London School of Economics Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE UK
Publication date: 1996-01-01