Climate Change Policy Targets and the Role of Technological Change
Authors: Janssen, M.A.; de Vries, B.
Source: Climatic Change, Volume 46, Numbers 1-2, July 2000 , pp. 1-28(28)
Abstract:In this paper, we present results of simulation experiments with the TIME-model on the issue of mitigation strategies with regard to greenhouse gases. The TIME-model is an integrated system dynamics world energy model that takes into account the fact that the system has an inbuilt inertia and endogenous learning-by-doing dynamics, besides the more common elements of price-induced demand response and fuel substitution. First, we present four scenarios to highlight the importance of assumptions on innovations in energy technology in assessing the extent to which CO_2 emissions have to be reduced. The inertia of the energy system seems to make a rise of CO_2 emissions in the short term almost unavoidable. It is concluded that for the population and economic growth assumptions of the IPCC IS92a scenario, only a combination of supply- and demand-side oriented technological innovations in combination with policy measures can bring the target of CO_2-concentration stabilization at 550 ppmv by the year 2100 within reach. This will probably be associated with a temporary increase in the overall energy expenditures in the world economy. Postponing the policy measures will be more disadvantageous, and less innovation in energy technology will happen.
Document Type: Regular Paper
Affiliations: Bureau for Environmental Assessment (MNV), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Publication date: July 1, 2000