On the Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Greenhouse Climate Change

Author: Greve R.

Source: Climatic Change, Volume 46, Number 3, August 2000 , pp. 289-303(15)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

Numerical computations are performed with the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS in order to investigate the possible impact of a greenhouse-gas-induced climate change on the Greenland ice sheet. The assumed increase of the mean annual air temperature above the ice covers a range from Delta T = 1°C to 12°C, and several parameterizations for the snowfall and the surface melting are considered. The simulated shrinking of the ice sheet is a smooth function of the temperature rise, indications for the existence of critical thresholds of the climate input are not found. Within 1000 model years, the ice-volume decrease is limited to 10% of the present volume for Delta T 3°C, whereas the most extreme scenario, Delta T = 12°C, leads to an almost entire disintegration, which corresponds to a sea-level equivalent of 7 m. The different snowfall and melting parameterizations yield an uncertainty range of up to 20% of the present ice volume after 1000 model years.

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Institut für Mechanik III, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Hochschulstra beta e 1, D-64289 Darmstadt, Germanye 1, D-64289 Darmstadt, Germany">