A Climate Change Database for Biological Assessments in the Southeastern United States: Development and Case Study

Authors: Cooter E.J.¹; Richman M.B.²; Lamb P.J.²; Sampson D.A.³

Source: Climatic Change, Volume 44, Number 1-2, January 2000 , pp. 89-121(33)

Publisher: Springer

Abstract:

A regional database containing historical time series and climate change scenarios for the Southeastern United States was developed for the U.S.D.A. Forest Service Southern Global Change Program (SGCP). Daily historical values of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation and empirically derived estimates of vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation across a uniform 1° latitude × 1° longitude grid were obtained. Climate change scenarios of temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation were generated using semi-empirical techniques which combined historical time series and simulation field summaries from GISS, GFDL, OSU and UKMO General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments. An internally consistent 1° latitude × 1° longitude climate change scenario database was produced in which vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation conditions were driven by the GCM temperature projections, but were not constrained to agree with GCM calculated radiation and humidity fields. Some of the unique characteristics of the database were illustrated through a case study featuring growing season and annual potential evapotranspiration (ET_p) estimates. Overall, the unconstrained scenarios produced smaller median ET_p changes from historical baseline conditions, with a smaller range of outcomes than those driven by GCM-directed scenarios. Collectively, the range of annual and growing season ET_ changes from baseline estimates in response to the unconstrained climate scenarios was +10% to +40%. No outlier responses were identified. ET_p changes driven by GCM-directed (constrained) UKMO radiation and humidity scenarios were on the order of +100%, resulting in the identification of some ET_p responses as statistical outliers. These response differences were attributed to differences between the constrained and unconstrained humidity scenarios.

Language: English

Document Type: Regular paper

Affiliations: 1: Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, Air Resources Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, U.S.A. 2: School of Meteorology and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, U.S.A. 3: Department of Forestry, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, U.S.A.

Publication date: 2000-01-01

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• In this Subject: Meteorology & Climatology
• By this author: Cooter E.J. ;  Richman M.B. ;  Lamb P.J. ;  Sampson D.A.

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