Stochastic simulation of daily air temperature and precipitation from monthly normals in North America north of Mexico

Authors: Régnière, Jacques; St-Amant, Rémi

Source: International Journal of Biometeorology, Volume 51, Number 5, May 2007 , pp. 415-430(16)

Publisher: Springer

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Abstract:

A simple, stochastic daily temperature and precipitation generator (TEMPGEN) was developed to generate inputs for the study of the effects of climate change on models driven by daily weather information when climate data are available as monthly summaries. The model uses as input only 11 sets of monthly normal statistics from individual weather stations. It needs no calibration, and was parameterized and validated for use in Canada and the continental United States. Monthly normals needed are: mean and standard deviation of daily minimum and maximum temperature, first and second order autoregressive terms for daily deviations of minimum and maximum temperatures from their daily means, correlation of deviations of daily minimum and maximum temperatures, total precipitation, and the interannual variance of total precipitation. The statistical properties and distributions of daily temperature and precipitation data produced by this generator compared quite favorably with observations from 708 stations throughout North America (north of Mexico). The algorithm generates realistic seasonal patterns, variability and extremes of temperature, precipitation, frost-free periods and hot spells. However, it predicts less accurately the daily probability of precipitation, extreme precipitation events and the duration of extreme droughts.

Keywords: Stochastic model; Climate change; Autoregressive model; Daily weather generator; Low-frequency variability

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-006-0078-z

Affiliations: 1: Email: jregniere@cfl.forestry.ca

Publication date: 2007-05-01