@article {J. E.:2014:2220-8372:47,
title = "Using tuberculosis patient characteristics to predict future cases with matching genotype results",
journal = "Public Health Action",
parent_itemid = "infobike://iuatld/pha",
publishercode ="iuatld",
year = "2014",
volume = "4",
number = "1",
publication date ="2014-03-21T00:00:00",
pages = "47-52",
itemtype = "ARTICLE",
issn = "2220-8372",
eissn = "2220-8372",
url = "https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/iuatld/pha/2014/00000004/00000001/art00012",
doi = "doi:10.5588/pha.13.0098",
keyword = "transmission, tuberculosis, genotype",
author = "J. E., Oeltmann and Click, E. S. and Moonan, P. K.",
abstract = " Setting: United States. Background: It is unknown whether tuberculosis (TB) case or patient characteristics can predict the likelihood of future related TB cases.
Objective: To estimate the likelihood for future related cases, i.e., cases with matching TB genotypes within the same county diagnosed within the 2 years following the year of reporting of each included case. 
Design: We considered all TB cases with genotyping results reported in the United States during 2004-2010. Predictive scores were calculated based on patient characteristics by dividing the number of patients who were not the last case in
a county-level TB genotype cluster by the total number of patients. Results: Overall, there was a 30.8% chance that a future related case would be detected during the 2 years following the report year of any given case. Future
related cases were detected in 34.7% of instances following the diagnosis of smear-positive cases, 51.9% of instances following the diagnosis of a homeless patient and 45.2% of instances following the diagnosis of a patient who reported substance abuse. Predictive scores ranged by race (White
13.9%, Native Hawaiian 43.8%) and age group (65 years 13.1%, 0-4 years 43%), and were higher for US-born patients. Conclusion: Behavioral and sociodemographic factors can help predict the likelihood of future related
cases and can be used to prioritize contact investigations. ",
}