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Free Content Validation of a scoring tool to predict drug-resistant pathogens in hospitalised pneumonia patients

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BACKGROUND: Health care-associated pneumonia (HCAP) affects a heterogeneous group of patients in frequent contact with health care systems. However, HCAP criteria poorly predict infection with drug-resistant (DR) pathogens.

OBJECTIVE: To validate our previously reported risk-scoring model (predictive of DR pathogen infection) in patients admitted to hospital with pneumonia.

DESIGN: We evaluated 580 patients admitted with culture-positive bacterial pneumonia. We identified risk factors, evaluated the risk-scoring model's capacity to predict infection by DR pathogens and compared the model's diagnostic accuracy with that of current HCAP criteria.

RESULTS: DR pathogens were observed in 227/580 patients (39.1%). Of 269 HCAP patients, 153 (56.9%) were infected with DR pathogens. Overtreatment was more common in HCAP than in community-acquired pneumonia (58.7% vs. 41.2%, P < 0.001). Recent hospitalisation, admission from a long-term care facility, recent antibiotic treatment and tube feeding were independently associated with DR pathogens. For pathogen prediction, the risk-scoring model showed better diagnostic accuracy than HCAP criteria (area under receiver operating-characteristic curve = 0.723 vs. 0.673, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: According to current HCAP criteria, half of the HCAP patients were treated unnecessarily with broad-spectrum antibiotics. Risk scoring by stratifying risk factors could improve the identification of patients likely to be infected with DR pathogens.

Keywords: health care; prediction; risk scoring

Document Type: Research Article


Affiliations: Division of Pulmonology, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Institute of Chest Disease, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Publication date: May 1, 2013

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  • The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease publishes articles on all aspects of lung health, including public health-related issues such as training programmes, cost-benefit analysis, legislation, epidemiology, intervention studies and health systems research. The IJTLD is dedicated to the continuing education of physicians and health personnel and the dissemination of information on tuberculosis and lung health world-wide.

    Certain IJTLD articles are selected for translation into French, Spanish, Chinese or Russian. They are available on the Union website

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