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Free Content Lung cancer mortality in Spain: estimating the future burden to the year 2028

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Abstract:

OBJECTIVE: To use lung cancer mortality rates from 1979 to 2008 in Andalusia, southern Spain (population >8 000 000), to provide an estimate of the future number of deaths for the period 2009–2028.

DESIGN: The numbers of lung cancer deaths from 1979 to 2008 were obtained from the Andalusian Institute for Statistics (AIS). Data were arranged in 5-year age groups using an age-period-cohort model. Age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100 000 were calculated for males and females. Population projections for Andalusia 2009–2028 were downloaded from the AIS database.

RESULTS: In males, the ASR varied from 46.1 in 2004–2008 to 34.6 in 2024–2028, with a projected 33% decrease. In females, the ASR varied from 4.9 in 2004–2008 to 8.9 per 100 000 in 2024–2028, with a projected 45% increase. This reflects an annual change of −1.3% for males and of +2.7% for females for the period 2009–2028. The sex ratio is projected to drop from a male:female ratio of 11 (1979–1983) to 3.8 (2024–2028).

CONCLUSIONS: Our projections emphasise the significance of a continuously increasing trend in female lung cancer mortality, with a drop in the projected sex ratio.

Keywords: lung cancer; mortality; projections; sex differences

Document Type: Regular Paper

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.10.0577

Affiliations: 1: Clinical Record Department, Virgen del Rocío University Hospital, Seville, Spain 2: Pino Montano Health Centre, Seville, Spain 3: Medical-Surgical Unit of Respiratory Diseases, Virgen del Rocio University Hospital, Seville, Spain

Publication date: 2011-08-01

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  • The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease publishes articles on all aspects of lung health, including public health-related issues such as training programmes, cost-benefit analysis, legislation, epidemiology, intervention studies and health systems research. The IJTLD is dedicated to the continuing education of physicians and health personnel and the dissemination of information on tuberculosis and lung health world-wide.

    Certain IJTLD articles are selected for translation into French, Spanish, Chinese or Russian. They are available on the Union website

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