Long-term course of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in Swedish birth cohorts during the twentieth century
OBJECTIVE: To correlate estimates of TB infection in birth cohorts with the longitudinal incidence of active TB to assess the long-term risk and time pattern of reactivated TB.
DESIGN: Time trend analysis on TB incidence using age-cohort modelling.
RESULTS: The overall TB incidence decreased from 700 per 100 000 population in 1920 to 1.4 in 2009 in the Sweden-born population. The estimated disease rate (number of cases divided by the estimated number of infected in 1967), for each birth cohort between 1920 and 1940, was stable on a level between 9.8% and 10.7%. The reactivation rate of latent TB infection (LTBI) was 2% after 1967, when indigenous transmission had disappeared.
CONCLUSION: Although approximately 10% of persons with LTBI developed active TB, the majority of cases occurred shortly after infection, and the rates of reactivation declined over time. This indicates extensive spontaneous clearance of LTBI.
Document Type: Regular Paper
Affiliations: 1: Infectious Disease Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden; and Regional Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Malmö, Sweden 2: Competence Centre for Clinical Research, Lund University Hospital, Lund, Sweden 3: Department of Laboratory Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden 4: Infectious Disease Research Unit, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden
Publication date: 2011-06-01
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