Tuberculosis vaccination versus isoniazid preventive therapy: a decision analysis to determine the preferred strategy of tuberculosis prevention in HIV-infected adults in the developing world
OBJECTIVE: To compare the strategy of TB vaccination with that of tuberculin skin-testing in conjunction with isoniazid (INH) in preventing tuberculosis in HIV-infected persons. For any clinical scenarios in which immunization would be more effective than INH preventive therapy, to determine the minimum necessary vaccine safety and effectiveness required.
DESIGN: Decision analysis. A hypothetical cohort of 10000 HIV-infected persons, 65% of whom were tuberculin positive, living in the developing world, was studied. Probability estimates were based on BCG vaccine for the baseline analysis, and it was assumed that the vaccine cannot protect if given after infection.
RESULTS: Under the probability estimates and assumptions of the analysis, tuberculin skin testing/INH preventive therapy would prevent 458 more cases of TB and 45 more deaths due to TB than TB vaccination. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses revealed no thresholds at which TB vaccination would be the preferred strategy. Vaccine safety did not impact the outcome of the analysis. Three-way sensitivity analysis revealed that if the prevalence of anergy were 35% and the risk of progression to active TB among anergic persons 12.2 cases per 100 person-years, a vaccine would have to be at least 87% effective to be preferred over INH preventive therapy.
CONCLUSIONS: Under the conditions of the analysis, which did not account for cost or logistics, tuberculin skin testing/INH preventive therapy would be more effective than TB vaccination in preventing TB among HIV-infected persons. The hypothesized TB vaccine would prevent more TB than INH preventive therapy only in areas where the prevalence of anergy and risk of active TB if anergic were high, and vaccine effectiveness exceeded 87%.
Document Type: Regular Paper
Affiliations: 1: Department of Medicine, Keesler Medical Center, Keesler AFB, Mississippi, USA; and Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA 2: Clinical Research Laboratory, Keesler Medical Center, Keesler AFB, Mississippi , USA 3: Division of General Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA 4: Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Publication date: 1999-03-01
The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease publishes articles on all aspects of lung health, including public health-related issues such as training programmes, cost-benefit analysis, legislation, epidemiology, intervention studies and health systems research. The IJTLD is dedicated to the continuing education of physicians and health personnel and the dissemination of information on tuberculosis and lung health world-wide.
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