Authors: Choi, Jeong-Gil; Mok, Jin-Won; Han, Jin-Soo

Source: Tourism Economics, Volume 17, Number 6, December 2011 , pp. 1181-1196(16)

Publisher: IP Publishing Ltd

Abstract:

The Markov chain model provides researchers and policy makers with a means to predict travellers' choices of destination. This study predicts international tourist flows among three Asian countries and the USA, and provides a path for gauging the switching patterns of tourists from one country to another. Destination loyalty (hard core component) and the future market share for 2009 and 2010 were estimated. The findings provide necessary information to many interest groups, including government policy makers, travel companies, airline companies and researchers.

Keywords: DESTINATION SWITCHING; FORECASTING; TOURIST FLOWS; MARKOV ANALYSIS

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2011.0091

Publication date: 2011-12-01

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• Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).
  
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