Research note: Testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Singapore – an empirical investigation from bounds test to cointegration and Granger causality tests

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Abstract:

This paper empirically investigates the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis in the case of Singapore by employing the bounds test for cointegration, error correction models and Granger causality tests using annual data from 1960 to 2007. The results confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Singapore; real income growth converges significantly toward its long-term equilibrium level of 51.4% in the TLG model. The major finding of this study is that the TLG hypothesis is confirmed for the Singaporean economy in the long term as a result of conditional Granger causality tests.

Keywords: BOUNDS TEST; CONDITIONAL CAUSALITY; ECONOMIC GROWTH; SINGAPORE; TOURISM-LED GROWTH

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2010.0012

Publication date: December 1, 2010

More about this publication?
  • Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).

    Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
    Tourism Economics operates a Fast Track online publication system so that papers can be published and made available almost immediately on final acceptance by the journal. Each Fast Track article is given a DOI. When the paper is assigned to an issue, this DOI will automatically be transferred to the article in the journal issue.
    Fast Track articles may be cited using the DOI. Citations should include the author's or authors' name(s), the title of the article, the title of the journal followed by the words Fast Track, the year of Fast Track publication and the DOI. For example:

    Smith, J. (2013), Article title, Tourism Economics Fast Track, DOI xxxxxxxx.

    Once the paper has been published in an issue of the journal, the DOI will automatically resolve to that final version and the article can be cited in accordance with normal bibliographical conventions.

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