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Free Content Estimating the impact of avian flu on international tourism demand using panel data

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Abstract:

This paper investigates the impacts of avian flu on global and Asian tourism using panel data procedures. Both static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are adopted to estimate the impacts of this infectious disease. The empirical results from static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are consistent and indicate that the number of affected poultry outbreaks has significant impacts on the international tourism of global and Asian affected countries. The high mortality rate among humans, the potential of a global flu pandemic and some media frenzy with hype and speculation might adversely affect the images of these infected destinations as a safe tourist destination. Moreover, it was found that the average damage to Asian tourism was more serious, which might have been induced by an ineffective suppression in numerous Asian infected countries. In addition, Asia was the earliest affected region and the area infected most seriously by avian flu, both in humans and in poultry. Since the potential risks and damage arising from avian flu and the subsequent pandemic influenza are much greater than for previous diseases, the need to take necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of avian flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action in modelling and managing international tourism demand and risk.

Keywords: AVIAN FLU; DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL; FIXED EFFECTS; INTERNATIONAL TOURIST DEMAND

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/000000009789036611

Publication date: September 1, 2009

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  • Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).

    Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
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