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Modelling country risk and uncertainty in small island tourism economies

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Abstract:

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) differ significantly from each other in many respects, such as their size, location, political systems, historical experience, economic prospects, ecological fragility, and vulnerability to ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism. Given these differences, a careful analysis of country risk (or uncertainty) and its components for SITEs is of substantial interest to private tourism operators and foreign direct investors in the tourism and hospitality industry, tourism commissions and governments. This paper provides a comparison of country risk ratings, risk returns and their associated volatilities (or uncertainty) for six SITEs for which monthly data compiled by the International Country Risk Guide are available. Monthly economic, financial, political and composite country risk returns are used to estimate univariate symmetric and asymmetric models of uncertainty. The empirical results provide a comparative assessment of the country risk returns and uncertainty for the six SITEs.

Keywords: GARCH; GJR; REGULARITY CONDITIONS; RISK RATINGS; RISK RETURNS; SMALL ISLAND ECONOMIES

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/0000000054183504

Publication date: June 1, 2005

More about this publication?
  • Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).

    Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
    Tourism Economics operates a Fast Track online publication system so that papers can be published and made available almost immediately on final acceptance by the journal. Each Fast Track article is given a DOI. When the paper is assigned to an issue, this DOI will automatically be transferred to the article in the journal issue.
    Fast Track articles may be cited using the DOI. Citations should include the author's or authors' name(s), the title of the article, the title of the journal followed by the words Fast Track, the year of Fast Track publication and the DOI. For example:

    Smith, J. (2013), Article title, Tourism Economics Fast Track, DOI xxxxxxxx.

    Once the paper has been published in an issue of the journal, the DOI will automatically resolve to that final version and the article can be cited in accordance with normal bibliographical conventions.

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