Skip to main content

International tourism forecasts: time-series analysis of world and regional data

Buy Article:

$28.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Abstract:

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on international tourism arrivals and receipts at nominal, real and per capita levels. It uses modern time-series techniques based on the period 1960–2000 to produce forecasts for 2001–2010 in the six major World Tourism Organization regions and the world. The initial diagrammatic analysis of existing data suggests that, despite conventional wisdom, evolution in the mass tourism era has not been rosy. Performance differs dramatically among the regions, fluctuations are sharp and negative tourism growth is not unusual in real and per capita terms. Similarly, the subsequent forecasts occasionally have negative signs. Policy makers should, therefore, take action to increase revenue generation but not at the expense of sustainable tourism development.

Keywords: DIAGRAMMATIC ANALYSIS; FORECASTING; POLICY MAKING; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; TOURISM ECONOMETRICS

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/0000000053297167

Publication date: March 1, 2005

More about this publication?
  • Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).

    Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
    Tourism Economics operates a Fast Track online publication system so that papers can be published and made available almost immediately on final acceptance by the journal. Each Fast Track article is given a DOI. When the paper is assigned to an issue, this DOI will automatically be transferred to the article in the journal issue.
    Fast Track articles may be cited using the DOI. Citations should include the author's or authors' name(s), the title of the article, the title of the journal followed by the words Fast Track, the year of Fast Track publication and the DOI. For example:

    Smith, J. (2013), Article title, Tourism Economics Fast Track, DOI xxxxxxxx.

    Once the paper has been published in an issue of the journal, the DOI will automatically resolve to that final version and the article can be cited in accordance with normal bibliographical conventions.

  • Subscribe to this Title
  • ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
ip/tec/2005/00000011/00000001/art00002
dcterms_title,dcterms_description,pub_keyword
6
5
20
40
5

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more