If you are experiencing problems downloading PDF or HTML fulltext, our helpdesk recommend clearing your browser cache and trying again. If you need help in clearing your cache, please click here . Still need help? Email help@ingentaconnect.com

Modelling and forecasting the demand for Thai tourism

$28.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Buy Article:

Abstract:

This study examines the demand for Thai tourism by seven major origin countries – Australia, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, the UK and the USA. The general-to-specific modelling approach is followed in the construction, estimation, testing and selection of the tourism demand models. The empirical results show that habit persistence is the most important factor that influences the demand for Thai tourism by residents from all origin countries. The income, own price, cross price and trade volume variables are also found to be significant in the demand models, but the explanatory power of these variables, judged by the number of times they appear in the models, varies from origin to origin. The Asian financial crisis that occurred in late 1997 and early 1998 also appears to have had a significant impact on tourist arrivals from Singapore, Malaysia, Korea and the UK, but the magnitude and direction of influence are not the same for all models. The models that performed relatively well for each of the origin countries, according to both economic and statistical criteria, are selected to generate ex ante forecasts for the period up to 2010. The results suggest that Korea, Malaysia and Japan are expected to be the largest tourism generating countries by the end of the forecasting period, while the growth rate of tourist arrivals from Korea to Thailand is likely to be the highest among the seven origin countries.

Keywords: ECONOMETRIC MODEL; FORECASTING; THAILAND; TOURISM DEMAND

Document Type: Regular Paper

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/000000003322663186

Publication date: December 1, 2003

More about this publication?
  • Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).

    Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
    Tourism Economics operates a Fast Track online publication system so that papers can be published and made available almost immediately on final acceptance by the journal. Each Fast Track article is given a DOI. When the paper is assigned to an issue, this DOI will automatically be transferred to the article in the journal issue.
    Fast Track articles may be cited using the DOI. Citations should include the author's or authors' name(s), the title of the article, the title of the journal followed by the words Fast Track, the year of Fast Track publication and the DOI. For example:

    Smith, J. (2013), Article title, Tourism Economics Fast Track, DOI xxxxxxxx.

    Once the paper has been published in an issue of the journal, the DOI will automatically resolve to that final version and the article can be cited in accordance with normal bibliographical conventions.

  • Subscribe to this Title
  • ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
Related content

Tools

Favourites

Share Content

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
X
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more