Modelling and forecasting monthly airline passenger flows among three major Australian cities
Abstract:The authors examine statistical properties of time series data for the monthly numbers of airline passengers for three major Australian city-pairs (Brisbane–Melbourne, Sydney–Melbourne and Sydney–Brisbane). It is found that the three time series show a co-movement in the long run, each exhibiting a stochastic trend and deterministic seasonality. The impulse response analysis is conducted to examine how these time series are related in the short run. The bootstrap method is used to test for the statistical significance of impulse response estimates. The evidence suggests that the time series for the Sydney–Melbourne route is highly influential on the others in the short run. A number of univariate and multivariate time series models are used for forecasting. It is found that univariate methods generate more accurate forecasts than multivariate models.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: December 1, 2001
Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).
Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
Tourism Economics operates a Fast Track online publication system so that papers can be published and made available almost immediately on final acceptance by the journal. Each Fast Track article is given a DOI. When the paper is assigned to an issue, this DOI will automatically be transferred to the article in the journal issue.
Fast Track articles may be cited using the DOI. Citations should include the author's or authors' name(s), the title of the article, the title of the journal followed by the words Fast Track, the year of Fast Track publication and the DOI. For example:
Smith, J. (2013), Article title, Tourism Economics Fast Track, DOI xxxxxxxx.
Once the paper has been published in an issue of the journal, the DOI will automatically resolve to that final version and the article can be cited in accordance with normal bibliographical conventions.
- Subscribe to this Title
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites