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Forecasting tourism using univariate and multivariate structural time series models

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Abstract:

Tourism demand forecasting remains an important research area, as the search for more accurate forecasting methods continues. In particular, there is concern that many methods do not improve upon a simple naïve process. Structural time series models have shown significant potential as both univariate and explanatory forecasting tools. Inbound tourism to New Zealand from Australia, Japan, the UK and the USA disaggregated by purpose of visit is analysed, using both univariate and multivariate structural time series models, and their respective forecasting accuracy is compared. The naïve 'no change' model is used for benchmark comparison purposes. The structural time series model outperforms the naïve process, but the causal structural time series model does not generate more accurate forecasts than the univariate model.

Keywords: ACCURACY COMPARISONS; TIME SERIES MODELS; TOURISM FORECASTING

Document Type: Regular Paper

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/000000001101297775

Publication date: June 1, 2001

More about this publication?
  • Tourism Economics, published bimonthly, is a peer-reviewed journal devoted to the economics and finance of tourism worldwide. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).

    Fast Track. Tourism Economics Fast Track papers have been peer-reviewed, revised and fully accepted for publication. However, although these are the final versions from the authors, they are unedited manuscripts and will undergo a rigorous editing process before their appearance in an issue of the journal. This means that the Fast Track manuscripts may not conform to journal style in terms of presentation, spelling and other usages. They may also contain errors of typography, grammar, spelling, referencing, etc, all of which will be corrected in the processes of copy-editing and proofreading.
    Tourism Economics operates a Fast Track online publication system so that papers can be published and made available almost immediately on final acceptance by the journal. Each Fast Track article is given a DOI. When the paper is assigned to an issue, this DOI will automatically be transferred to the article in the journal issue.
    Fast Track articles may be cited using the DOI. Citations should include the author's or authors' name(s), the title of the article, the title of the journal followed by the words Fast Track, the year of Fast Track publication and the DOI. For example:

    Smith, J. (2013), Article title, Tourism Economics Fast Track, DOI xxxxxxxx.

    Once the paper has been published in an issue of the journal, the DOI will automatically resolve to that final version and the article can be cited in accordance with normal bibliographical conventions.

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