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Daily Mobility of the Inhabitants of Lille up to 2030 La movilidad diaria de los habitantes de Lille al horizonte de 2030 La mobilité quotidienne des Lillois à l'horizon 2030

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The cross-sectional household travel surveys conducted in the major French agglomerations provide a rich data source on daily mobility, analysed here in an original manner by and . Their primary purpose is to obtain information for urban planners on the modes of transport used by city dwellers and on their reasons for travel. However, the fact that they are standardized and conducted on a regular basis means that they can also be used not only to identify patterns in daily mobility, but also to analyse changes in behaviour between successive cohorts of city-dwellers and, above all, to forecast future trends by age, taking account of the particular experience of the cohorts observed.

La previsión de la movilidad a largo plazo es uno de los grandes desafíos de la planificación de los transportes urbanos. El enfoque demográfico, basado en encuestas periódicas, da cuenta de la dinámica del comportamiento de individuos que pertenecen a diferentes generaciones en etapas sucesivas de su ciclo de vida. El desglose de los efectos temporales en un efecto de edad y un efecto de cohorte de nacimiento permite trazar un perfiltipo durante el ciclo de vida: es el principio fundamental del modelo "edad-cohorte" de proyección de la movilidad urbana a largo plazo. El modelo se aplica a la aglomeración de Lille, en donde disponemos de tres encuestas espaciadas por 11 años.

La prévision de la mobilité à long terme est un des grands défis de la planification des transports urbains. L'approche démographique, basée sur des enquêtes périodiques, rend compte de la dynamique du comportement d'individus appartenant à différentes générations lors des étapes successives de leur cycle de vie. La décomposition des effets temporels en un effet d'âge et un effet de cohorte de naissance permet de tracer un profil-type au cours du cycle de vie : c'est le principe fondamental du modèle « âge-cohorte » de projection de la mobilité urbaine à long terme. Le modèle est appliqué à l'agglomération de Lille, où nous disposons de trois enquêtes espacées de 11 ans.

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: November 1, 2007

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  • Population is a peer-reviewed quarterly scientific journal published in English (Population-E) and in French (Population-F). It presents original research in the fields of demography and related disciplines: sociology, economics, anthropology, history, geography, epidemiology and public health, methodology in social science. Contributions can be submitted in either English or French and are published in both languages. Both developed and developing countries are covered. Population trends in different parts of the world are presented in special annual features.
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