Authors: Nkurunziza, Hermenegilde¹; Pilz, Jurgen²

Source: International Journal of Global Warming, Volume 3, Numbers 1-2, February 2011 , pp. 77-87(11)

Publisher: Inderscience Publishers

Abstract:

The focus in this paper is to assess whether the increase in (global) temperature would result in increase in malaria transmission in Burundi. The analysis carried out in this work exploits real data collected in Burundi, namely monthly rainfall, temperature and humidity data as well as monthly malaria morbidity data for the period 1996-2007. We propose a Bayesian Generalised Additive Model (GAM) to assess the impact of increase in temperature on malaria transmission. The results suggest that although malaria transmission is positively associated with minimum temperature and maximum humidity, increasing temperature in Burundi will not result in increasing malaria transmission.

Keywords: ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT; Energy; Environment and Sustainable Development

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJGW.2011.038371

Affiliations: 1: Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Mathematics, University of Burundi, Post Box 5368, Bujumbura, Burundi. 2: Department of Statistics, University of Klagenfurt, Universitatstrasse 65-67, Klagenfurt 9020, Austria

Publication date: 2011-02-01

More about this publication?

• The objectives of the International Journal of Global Warming are to establish an effective channel of communication between professionals, academics, researchers, scientists, engineers, and policymakers in academia and research institutions, government agencies, all sectors (industrial, residential, commercial, governmental, transportation, utilities, etc.), and other private organisations with a common goal to understand global warming and its consequences and bring local and global solutions to these. It also aims to promote and coordinate developments in the field of global warming and global change. The dimension of the journal is diverse and global because of the nature of the topic on global warming and global changes.

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