The impact of climate change on future frontal variations of Briksdalsbreen, western Norway
Authors: Laumann, Tron; Nesje, Atle
Source: Journal of Glaciology, Volume 55, Number 193, December 2009 , pp. 789-796(8)
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Abstract:A flowline model, coupled with a surface mass-balance model forced by climate data from Bergen, was used to simulate future frontal changes of Briksdalsbreen, a western outlet glacier from Jostedalsbreen, western Norway, under various future climate scenarios. The model was used to calculate the time-lag of frontal response to a sudden and short change in the mass balance. According to the model, the front has a time-lag for maximum advance rate of 4-5 years, in close agreement with previous studies. The response time for Briksdalsbreen was calculated by running the model for 200 years with different mass-balance perturbations. For mass-balance perturbations of +0.3 and +0.6 m w.e. the model yields response times of 52 and 60 years, respectively. We ran the model from 1963 to 2007 with measured mass-balance data, and from 2007 to 2085 using calculated mass balances from 12 different climate scenarios. The model predicts retreat up the steep valley from the lake inlet, with a total frontal retreat of 2.5-5.0 km by 2085. A spectacular icefall, one of the main tourist attractions in western Norway, may thus disappear and the glacier may become a plateau glacier that will gradually melt down.
Document Type: Research article
Publication date: 2009-12-01
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