Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record

Authors: Meier, Walter N.; Stroeve, Julienne; Fetterer, Florence

Source: Annals of Glaciology, Volume 46, Number 1, October 2007 , pp. 428-434(7)

Publisher: International Glaciological Society

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Abstract:

The Arctic sea ice has been pointed to as one of the first and clearest indicators of climate change. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1979 through 2005 now indicate a significant −8.4 ±1.5% decade⁻¹ trend (99% confidence level) in September sea-ice extent, a larger trend than earlier estimates due to acceleration of the decline over the past 41 years. There are differences in regional trends, with some regions more stable than others; not all regional trends are significant. The largest trends tend to occur in months where melt is at or near its peak for a given region. A longer time series of September extents since 1953 was adjusted to correct biases and extended through 2005. The trend from the longer time series is −7.7±0.6% decade⁻¹ (99%), slightly less than from the satellite-derived data that begin in 1979, which is expected given the recent acceleration in the decline.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.3189/172756407782871170

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