Verification of nearest-neighbours interpretations in avalanche forecasting
Authors: Heierli, Joachim; Purves, Ross S.; Felber, Andreas; Kowalski, Julia
Source: Annals of Glaciology, Volume 38, Number 1, January 2004 , pp. 84-88(5)
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Abstract:This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: January 1, 2004
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