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Modelling the variability of the sea-ice conditions in the Baltic Sea under different climate conditions

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The present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present in the Baltic Sea are examined by two 10 year integrations of an ice–ocean model. Results from atmospheric climate-model simulations constitute the atmospheric forcing, one representing present climate conditions(control simulation), and the other global warming due to CO2 doubling (scenario simulation). The present-day climatological ice conditions and the interannual variability were realistically reproduced by the ice–ocean model. The modelled range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic was 190–420 × 103 km2 in the control simulation and 50–270 × 103 km2 in the scenario simulation. The range of the annual maximum level-ice thickness was 45–85 and 20–58 cm in the control and scenario simulations, respectively.

Document Type: Research Article


Publication date: January 1, 2001

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  • The Annals of Glaciology is a peer-reviewed, thematic journal published 2 to 4 times a year by the International Glaciological Society (IGS). Publication frequency is determined and volume/issue numbers assigned by the IGS Council on a year-to-year basis and with a lead time of 3 to 4 years. The Annals of Glaciology is included in the ISI Science Citation Index from volume 50, number 50 onwards.

    Themes can be on any aspect of the study of snow and ice. Individual members can make a suggestion for a theme for an Annals issue to the Secretary General, who will forward it to the IGS Publications Committee. The IGS Publication Committee will make a recommendation for an individual themed Annals issue, together with a potential Annals Chief Editor for that issue, to IGS Council. The IGS Council will make the decision whether to proceed, taking into account the spread of topics and the overall capacity for publication of pages in Annals.

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