Sea ice and climate in 20th- and 21st-century simulations with a global atmosphere–ocean–ice model

Authors: Weatherly, John W.; Arblaster, Julie M.

Source: Annals of Glaciology, Volume 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 521-524(4)

Publisher: International Glaciological Society

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Abstract:

A global atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice general circulation model (GCM) is used in simulations of climate with greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfate aerosols prescribed from observational data (1870–1995) and future projections (1995–2100). Simulations that include the variability in solar flux from 1870 through 1995 are also performed. The variation in solar flux of AE 2 W m−2 produces a global temperature change of AE 0.2°C in the model. The more recent simulated warming trend produced by increasing greenhouse gases exceeds this solar-flux warming, although the solar flux contributes to some of the simulated present-day warm temperatures. The future increases in greenhouse gases produce an increase in global temperature of 1.2°C over 70 years, with significant decreases in Arctic ice thickness and area. The model exhibits an atmospheric pressure mode similar to the Arctic Oscillation, with different correlation indices between the North Atlantic and North Pacific pressure anomalies.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756401781818077

Publication date: January 1, 2001

More about this publication?
  • The Annals of Glaciology is a peer-reviewed, thematic journal published 2 to 4 times a year by the International Glaciological Society (IGS). Publication frequency is determined and volume/issue numbers assigned by the IGS Council on a year-to-year basis and with a lead time of 3 to 4 years. The Annals of Glaciology is included in the ISI Science Citation Index from volume 50, number 50 onwards.

    Themes can be on any aspect of the study of snow and ice. Individual members can make a suggestion for a theme for an Annals issue to the Secretary General, who will forward it to the IGS Publications Committee. The IGS Publication Committee will make a recommendation for an individual themed Annals issue, together with a potential Annals Chief Editor for that issue, to IGS Council. The IGS Council will make the decision whether to proceed, taking into account the spread of topics and the overall capacity for publication of pages in Annals.

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