Estimate of uncertainties in avalanche hazard mapping

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Abstract:

The present work addresses the urgent demand for methods of quantifying the uncertainties inherent in the current procedures for avalanche hazard assessment. A Monte Carlo approach to hazard mapping is proposed for this purpose. This statistical sampling-analysis method allows us to evaluate the probability distributions of the relevant variables for avalanche hazard assessment — essentially runout distance and impact pressure — once the release variables and the model parameters are expressed in terms of suitable probability distributions. In this way it is possible to explicitly account for uncertainties both in the input-data definition of the dynamic models and in the mapping results. The overall methodology is presented in detail and applied to a real-world avalanche mapping problem. The one-dimensional version of the VARA models is used for avalanche dynamics simulations.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819373

Publication date: January 1, 2001

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  • The Annals of Glaciology is a peer-reviewed, thematic journal published 2 to 4 times a year by the International Glaciological Society (IGS). Publication frequency is determined and volume/issue numbers assigned by the IGS Council on a year-to-year basis and with a lead time of 3 to 4 years. The Annals of Glaciology is included in the ISI Science Citation Index from volume 50, number 50 onwards.

    Themes can be on any aspect of the study of snow and ice. Individual members can make a suggestion for a theme for an Annals issue to the Secretary General, who will forward it to the IGS Publications Committee. The IGS Publication Committee will make a recommendation for an individual themed Annals issue, together with a potential Annals Chief Editor for that issue, to IGS Council. The IGS Council will make the decision whether to proceed, taking into account the spread of topics and the overall capacity for publication of pages in Annals.

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