Avalanches: a probabilistic approach to modelling
Abstract:A probabilistic approach to modelling avalanche origin and dynamics is developed. An avalanche process is considered as a single event. As a basis, the physically established deterministic models describing the processes of avalanche origin and motion are used. On the other hand, input data and/or parameters of these models are treated as random variables. The study is restricted only with respect to the dynamic stage of the avalanche process. It is assumed that the initial volume of snow, entrained into the motion, and the coefficients of dry and turbulent friction of the avalanche body are random variables. The other input data are deterministic. Three kinds of distribution laws for random variables are examined: uniform, normal and exponential. Several hundred numerical tests, carried out for the selected avalanche path No. 22 in the Khibiny region, Russia, allowed construction of the distribution functions for the output parameters of the dynamic model. These parameters are the front velocity, the height and the volume of the avalanche body at fixed points of the avalanche path. No very strong dependence of distribution functions on the kind of distribution laws was found. The model and empirical distribution functions are very close to one another for run-out distances and sufficiently close for depths and volumes of snow deposits.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: January 1, 2001
- The Annals of Glaciology is a peer-reviewed, thematic journal published 2 to 4 times a year by the International Glaciological Society (IGS). Publication frequency is determined and volume/issue numbers assigned by the IGS Council on a year-to-year basis and with a lead time of 3 to 4 years. The Annals of Glaciology is included in the ISI Science Citation Index from volume 50, number 50 onwards.
Themes can be on any aspect of the study of snow and ice. Individual members can make a suggestion for a theme for an Annals issue to the Secretary General, who will forward it to the IGS Publications Committee. The IGS Publication Committee will make a recommendation for an individual themed Annals issue, together with a potential Annals Chief Editor for that issue, to IGS Council. The IGS Council will make the decision whether to proceed, taking into account the spread of topics and the overall capacity for publication of pages in Annals.
- Editorial Board
- Information for Authors
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites