Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard

Authors: Martin, Eric; Giraud, Gérald; Lejeune, Yves; Boudart, Géraldine

Source: Annals of Glaciology, Volume 32, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 163-167(5)

Publisher: International Glaciological Society

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Abstract:

The SAFRAN/Crocus/MÉPRA software is used to assess the climatology of the avalanche hazard and its sensitivity to climate change. A natural avalanche-hazard index based on MÉPRA analysis is defined and validated against natural avalanche observations (triggered avalanches are not taken into account). A 15 year climatology then allows a comparison of avalanche hazard in the different French massifs. Finally, a simple climate scenario (with a general increase of precipitation and temperature) shows that avalanche hazard may decrease slightly in winter (mainly February) and more significantly in May/June. The relative proportion of wet-snow avalanches increases.

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.3189/172756401781819292

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