Predictive Model for Survival and Growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on Chicken Skin during Temperature Abuse

$37.00 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Buy Article:


To better predict risk of Salmonella infection from chicken subjected to temperature abuse, a study was undertaken to develop a predictive model for survival and growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on chicken skin with native flora. For model development, chicken skin portions (2.14 cm2) were inoculated with 0.85 log of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (ATCC 700408) and then stored at 5 to 50°C for 8 h. Kinetic data from the storage trials were fit to a primary model to determine lag time (λ), specific growth rate (μ), and the 95% prediction interval (PI). Secondary models for λ, μ, and PI as a function of storage temperature were developed and then combined with the primary model to create a tertiary model. Performance of the tertiary model was evaluated against dependent data, independent data for interpolation, and independent data for extrapolation to kosher chicken skin by using an acceptable prediction zone from −1 (fail-safe) to 0.5 (fail-dangerous) log per skin portion. Survival of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on chicken skin was observed during 8 h of storage at 5 to 20°C and at 50°C, whereas growth was observed from 25 to 45°C and was optimal at 40°C with a λ of 2.5 h and a μ of 1.1 log/h. Variation of pathogen growth, as assessed by PI, increased in a nonlinear manner as a function of temperature and was greater for growth conditions than no-growth conditions. The percentage of acceptable prediction errors was 82.6% for dependent data, 83.7% for independent data for interpolation, and 81.6% for independent data for extrapolation to kosher skin, which all exceeded the performance criterion of 70% acceptable predictions. Thus, it was concluded that the tertiary model provided valid predictions for survival and growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 from a low initial dose on both nonkosher and kosher chicken skin with native flora.

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Microbial Food Safety Research Unit and USDA/1890, Center of Excellence in Poultry Food Safety Research, Room 2111, Center for Food Science and Technology, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Princess Anne, Maryland 21853, USA

Publication date: February 1, 2009

More about this publication?
  • IAFP members must first sign in on the right to access full text articles of JFP

    First published in 1937, the Journal of Food Protection®, is a refereed monthly publication. Each issue contains scientific research and authoritative review articles reporting on a variety of topics in food science pertaining to food safety and quality. The Journal is internationally recognized as the leading publication in the field of food microbiology with a readership exceeding 11,000 scientists from 70 countries. The Journal of Food Protection® is indexed in Index Medicus, Current Contents, BIOSIS, PubMed, Medline, and many others.

    Print and online subscriptions are available to Members and Institutional subscribers. Online visitors who are not IAFP Members or journal subscribers will be charged on a pay-per-view basis. Information can be obtained by calling +1 800.369.6337; +1 515.276.3344; fax: +1 515.276.8655, E-mail: or Web site:
  • Information for Authors
  • Submit a Paper
  • Subscribe to this Title
  • Membership Information
  • Information for Advertisers
  • ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
Related content



Share Content

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more