Using Expert Elicitation To Link Foodborne Illnesses in the United States to Foods

Authors: Hoffmann, Sandra¹; Fischbeck, Paul²; Krupnick, Alan¹; Mcwilliams, Michael¹

Source: Journal of Food Protection®, Volume 70, Number 5, May 2007 , pp. 1220-1229(10)

Publisher: International Association for Food Protection

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Abstract:

U.S. foodborne illness risk analysis would benefit greatly from better information on the relationship between the incidence of foodborne illness and exposure to foodborne pathogens. In this study, expert elicitation was used to attribute U.S. foodborne illnesses caused by the nine FoodNet pathogens, Toxoplasma gondii, and noroviruses to consumption of foods in 11 broad categories. Forty-two nationally recognized food safety experts responded to a formal written expert elicitation survey. For each pathogen, respondents gave their best estimate of the distribution of foodborne illnesses associated with each of the food categories and the 90% confidence bounds on each of their estimates. Based on the work of Paul Mead and his coauthors, food attribution percentage estimates from this study were used to attribute case, hospitalization, and death incidence estimates to foods according to pathogen. These attribution estimates indicate that 15 food-pathogen pairs account for 90% of the illnesses, 25 pairs account for 90% of hospitalizations, and 21 pairs account for 90% of deaths.

Document Type: Research article

Affiliations: 1: Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, USA 2: Social and Decision Sciences, Porter Hall 223G, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, USA

Publication date: 2007-05-01

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First published in 1937, the Journal of Food Protection^®, is a refereed monthly publication. Each issue contains scientific research and authoritative review articles reporting on a variety of topics in food science pertaining to food safety and quality. The Journal is internationally recognized as the leading publication in the field of food microbiology with a readership exceeding 11,000 scientists from 70 countries. The Journal of Food Protection^® is indexed in Index Medicus, Current Contents, BIOSIS, PubMed, Medline, and many others.

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Using Expert Elicitation To Link Foodborne Illnesses in the United States to Foods

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