A Probability of Growth Model for Escherichia coli O157:H7 as a Function of Temperature, pH, Acetic Acid, and Salt

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Abstract:

Data accumulated on the growth of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in tryptic soy broth (TSB) were used to develop a logistic regression model describing the growth-no growth interface as a function of temperature, pH, salt, sucrose, and acetic acid. A fractional factorial design with five factors was used at the following levels: temperature (10 to 30°C), acetic acid (0 to 4%), salt (0.5 to 16.5%), sucrose (0 to 8%), and pH (3.5 to 6.0). A total of 1,820 treatment combinations were used to create the model, which correctly predicted 1,802 (99%) of the points, with 10 false positives and 8 false negatives. Concordance was 99.9%, discordance was 0.1%, and the maximum rescaled R 2 value was 0.927. Acetic acid was the factor having the most influence on the growth-no growth interface; addition of as little as 0.5% resulted in an increase in the observed minimum pH for growth from 4.0 to 5.5. Increasing the salt concentration also had a significant effect on the interface; at all acetic acid concentrations, increasing salt increased the minimum temperature at which growth was observed. Using two literature data sets (26 conditions), the logistic model failed to predict growth in only one case. The results of this study suggest that the logistic regression model can be used to make conservative predictions of the growth-no growth interface of E. coli O157:H7.

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Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Food Research Program, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 93 Stone Road West, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 5C9

Publication date: December 1, 2001

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