Mathematical models that can predict the growth of Yersinia enterocolitica in chicken meats were evaluated in this study. The growth curves for Y. enterocolitica in chicken meats variously
packaged (air, vacuum, and modified atmosphere packaging [MAP]) and stored at various temperatures (4, 10, 16, 22, 28, and 34°C) were constructed. The Gompertz model was applied to fit each of the experimental
curves for the conditions mentioned above. The variations in the parameters, including lag time (λ) and specific growth rate (μ), at various temperatures were then described by the following models:
the variations in lag time were described by the Adair and Smith models and the variations in the specific growth rate were described by the Ratkowsky and Zwietering models. The various models were then
compared using graphical and mathematical analyses such as mean square error (MSE), regression coefficient (r2), bias factor, and accuracy factor. The results indicate that the mean r
values in the Gompertz model for chicken meats packaged in air, vacuum, and MAP were 0.99, 0.99, and 0.95, respectively. The lag time modeled with the Adair and Smith functions exhibited a greater variance
and demonstrated larger errors. The MSEs were 0.0015 and 0.0017 for Ratkowsky and Zwietering models, respectively. The r2 values in the Ratkowsky and Zwietering models were both 0.99.
The bias factor was 1.017 for the Ratkowsky model and 1.096 for the Zwietering model. The accuracy factor of the Zwietering model was 1.174, which was lower than that in the Ratkowsky model (1.275), indicating
that the former model was more accurate than the latter in predicting the specific growth rate of Y. enterocolitica in chicken meats.
Document Type: Research Article
Chung Hwa Institute of Technology, Tainan, Taiwan, Republic of China 2:
National Chung Hsing University, 250 Kuokuang Road, Taichung 40227, Taiwan, Republic of China
Publication date: July 1, 2001
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