Topics in Dose-Response Modeling
Abstract:Great uncertainty exists in conducting dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens. The data to support quantitative modeling of dose-response relationships are meager. Our philosophy in developing methodology to conduct microbial risk assessments has been to rely on data analysis and formal inferencing from the available data in constructing dose-response and exposure models. The probability of illness is a complex function of factors associated with the disease triangle: the host, the pathogen, and the environment including the food vehicle and indigenous microbial competitors. The epidemiological triangle and interactions between the components of the triangle are used to illustrate key issues in dose-response modeling that impact the estimation of risk and attendant uncertainty. Distinguishing between uncertainty (what is unknown) and variability (heterogeneity) is crucial in risk assessment. Uncertainty includes components that are associated with (i) parameter estimation for a given assumed model, and (ii) the unknown "true" model form among many plausible alternatives such as the exponential, Beta-Poisson, probit, logistic, and Gompertz. Uncertainty may be grossly understated if plausible alternative models are not tested in the analysis. Examples are presented of the impact of variability and uncertainty on species, strain, or serotype of microbial pathogens; variability in human response to administered doses of pathogens; and effects of threshold and nonthreshold models. Some discussion of the usefulness and limitations of epidemiological data is presented. Criteria for development of surrogate dose-response models are proposed for pathogens for which human data are lacking. Alternative dose-response models which consider biological plausibility are presented for predicting the probability of illness.
Document Type: Miscellaneous
Affiliations: 1: Office of Public Health and Science, Program Development, and Evaluation, Food Safety and Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-3700, USA 2: Office of Policy, Program Development, and Evaluation, Food Safety and Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1400 Independence Ave., SW, Washington, D.C. 20250-3700, USA
Publication date: November 1, 1998
- IAFP Members with personal subscriptions to JFP Online: To access full-text JFP or JMFT articles, you must sign-in in the upper-right corner using your Ingenta sign-in details (your IAFP Member Login does not apply to this website). The Journal of Food Protection (JFP) is a refereed monthly publication. Each issue contains scientific research and authoritative review articles reporting on a variety of topics in food science pertaining to food safety and quality. The Journal is internationally recognized as the leading publication in the field of food microbiology with a readership exceeding 11,000 scientists from 70 countries. The Journal of Food Protection is indexed in Index Medicus, Current Contents, BIOSIS, PubMed, Medline, and many others.
Print and online subscriptions are available to IAFP Members and institutional subscribers. IAFP Members with a subscription to JFP Online will have access to all available JFP and JMFT content. Online visitors who are not IAFP Members or journal subscribers will be charged on a pay-per-view basis. Membership and subscription information is available at www.foodprotection.org.
- Information for Authors
- Submit a Paper
- Subscribe to this Title
- Membership Information
- Information for Advertisers
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites