Simulated Predictions of Insect Phenological Events Made by Using Mean and Median Functional Lower Developmental Thresholds
Authors: Legg, D. E.; Van Vleet, S. M.; Lloyd, J. E.
Source: Journal of Economic Entomology, Volume 93, Number 3, June 2000 , pp. 658-661(4)
Publisher: Entomological Society of America
Abstract:A computer-simulated study was conducted to determine whether mean or median functional lower developmental thresholds and required degree-days were superior for predicting the dates on which insect phenological events occurred. In addition, these simulations allowed us to determine if the type of year (weatherwise) influenced those predictions. Results indicated that when median functional lower developmental thresholds and required degree-days were used their predictions were closer to the dates on which the phenological events occurred than were predictions that were made using mean thresholds and required degree-days. Also, the predictions of phenological events made when using median functional lower developmental thresholds and required degree-days were not strongly influenced by the type of year. However, the influence of type of year was quite strong when predictions were made when using mean thresholds and required degree-days. The variability in predictions that were made when using median functional lower developmental thresholds and required degree-days was greater than the variability in predictions that were made when using mean thresholds and required degree days. However, the increased variability was caused by many predictions being closer to, rather than farther from, the actual dates on which the phenological events occurred. Based on these findings, we suggest that median functional lower developmental thresholds, along with median required degree-days, be considered for use when predicting insect phenological events in the field.
Document Type: Research article
Publication date: 2000-06-01
- Journal of Economic Entomology is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December. The journal publishes articles on the economic significance of insects and is divided into the following sections: apiculture & social insects; arthropods in relation to plant disease; forum; insecticide resistance and resistance management; ecotoxicology; biological and microbial control; ecology and behavior; sampling and biostatistics; household and structural insects; medical entomology; molecular entomology; veterinary entomology; forest entomology; horticultural entomology; field and forage crops, and small grains; stored-product; commodity treatment and quarantine entomology; and plant resistance. In addition to research papers, Journal of Economic Entomology publishes Letters to the Editor, interpretive articles in a Forum section, Short Communications, Rapid Communications, and Book Reviews.
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