Developing and Validating a Model for Predicting Gypsy Moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) Defoliation in Connecticut
Author: WESELOH, RONALD M.
Source: Journal of Economic Entomology, Volume 89, Number 6, December 1996 , pp. 1546-1555(10)
Publisher: Entomological Society of America
Abstract:A logistic regression model was developed that predicts the probability of forest defoliation by the gypsy moth, Lyrnantna dispar L., in Connecticut. Data used to develop the model were obtained from sketch maps of defoliation in Connecticut from 1982 to 1994, interpolations (using ordinary point kriging) of fixed area egg mass counts from permanent plots in Connecticut from 1986 to 1994, digital soil maps, and digital elevation models. Subjective comparisons of predicted and actual defoliation maps over years used to fit model parameters were similar. The model was validated with data from years not used in developing the model (1975 to 1985 and 1995). When defoliation was averaged over all locales for validation years, average predicted defoliation tracked actual average defoliation, although the association between them was not significant. Correlations between predicted and actual defoliation, when pairs being compared were at the same locations, were below 0.2 for years in which <2% of the state was defoliated. However, for years in which >2% of the state was defoliated, correlations ranged up to 0.9. The model developed here should be useful in providing probabilities of defoliation that can be used in population suppression programs.
Document Type: Research Article
Publication date: December 1, 1996
- Journal of Economic Entomology is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December. The journal publishes articles on the economic significance of insects and is divided into the following sections: apiculture & social insects; arthropods in relation to plant disease; forum; insecticide resistance and resistance management; ecotoxicology; biological and microbial control; ecology and behavior; sampling and biostatistics; household and structural insects; medical entomology; molecular entomology; veterinary entomology; forest entomology; horticultural entomology; field and forage crops, and small grains; stored-product; commodity treatment and quarantine entomology; and plant resistance. In addition to research papers, Journal of Economic Entomology publishes Letters to the Editor, interpretive articles in a Forum section, Short Communications, Rapid Communications, and Book Reviews.
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