Forecasting Potential Defoliation by Larch Casebearer in the Northern Rocky Mountains

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A quadratic regression model (Y = 4.015 + 0.4419X − 0.001036X2) for forecasting defoliation potential by larch casebearer on western larch was developed. The model utilizes systematic counts of overwintering larvae of Coleophora laricella (Hübner) on 40 branch samples/sample point (X) to forecast intensity of feeding injury which is expressed as a numerical rating (Y) and can be translated into 4 broad classes of damage: negligible, light, moderate, and heavy. The model permits prediction of potential feeding injury to within 1 defoliation class, 98 out of 100 times.

Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: February 1, 1974

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