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Whether a Shock Has a Temporary or Permanent Effect on Visitor Arrivals in Singapore

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Abstract:

Testing for the nonstationarity hypothesis is important in tourism research. If a visitor arrivals series is nonstationary, the occurrence of a shock will have a permanent effect on the series. This research note tests the nonstationary hypothesis on the monthly data of visitor arrivals in Singapore from seven main source countries with Zivot and Andrews unit root test. This unit root test is used in this study because it allows for one endogenous break in the series. The obtained results suggest that each of these series is nonstationary, indicating that shocks to visitor arrivals in Singapore are permanent.

Keywords: NONSTATIONARITY; SHOCK; SINGAPORE; TIME SERIES; VISITOR ARRIVALS

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3727/154427211X12954639814939

Publication date: January 1, 2010

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  • Tourism Review International is a peer-reviewed journal that advances excellence in all fields of tourism research, promotes high-level tourism knowledge, and nourishes cultural awareness in all sectors of the tourism industry by integrating industry and academic perspectives. Its international and interdisciplinary nature ensures that the needs of those interested in tourism are served by documenting industry practices, discussing tourism management and planning issues, providing a forum for primary research and critical examinations of previous research, and by chronicling changing tourism patterns and trends at the local, regional and global scale.

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