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Modeling Seasonal Variation in Tourism Flows with Climate Variables

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Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to model and forecast the seasonal variation, the fluctuations in tourist numbers from season to season in Australian inbound holiday tourism, using climate variables such as maximum temperature, humidity, and hours of sunshine. For estimation purposes this study uses quarterly data on arrivals from the US, UK, Japan, and New Zealand to Australia from September 1975 to September 2009. Seasonal variation, which is the respective and predictable movement of visitation around the trend line, was first extracted from the quarterly holiday tourist arrivals time-series using the Basic Structural Model (BSM) approach. Subsequently, the influence of climate variables on seasonal variation in different seasons was identified using the average euclidean minimum distance (AD) statistics. The AD statistics show that climate variables shape the characteristic of seasonal variation of tourism flows but the effect tends to vary between seasons and countries. A time-series model was estimated with climate variables to forecast seasonal variation. The forecasting comparison result shows that climate variables improve the forecasting performance. The approach can be replicated to help destination managers and forecasters determine if climate variables influence tourism flows between other origins and destinations globally.

Keywords: ARCH MODELING; AUSTRALIAN TOURISM; AVERAGE EUCLIDEAN DISTANCE STATISTICS; CLIMATE VARIABLES; SEASONAL VARIATION

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3727/108354212X13388995267706

Publication date: March 1, 2012

More about this publication?
  • The aim of Tourism Analysis is to promote a forum for practitioners and academicians in the fields of Leisure, Recreation, Tourism, and Hospitality (LRTH). As a interdisciplinary journal, it is an appropriate outlet for articles, research notes, and computer software packages designed to be of interest, concern, and of applied value to its audience of professionals, scholars, and students of LRTH programs the world over.
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