IngentaConnect Use of Bass Modeling to Define and Analyze the Rate of Adoption f...

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By this author: Hess, Patrick ;&nbsp; Applegate, Mark

Authors: Hess, Patrick; Applegate, Mark

Source: Journal of Clinical Ligand Assay, Volume 30, Numbers 3-4, Fall-Winter 2007 , pp. 77-80(4)

Publisher: Clinical Ligand Assay Society

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Abstract:

Bass models were used for the first time to determine the rate of market adoption for commonly used clinical laboratory markers. Mathematical parameters derived in the process were then used to model by analogy sales of a new marker in the attempt to understand why forecasts failed to meet initial expectations. In the first instance, the models revealed an unusually long rate of adoption for both established markers that, if characteristic of typical adoption rates for in vitro diagnostics, can have significant implications for new product development. In the second instance, modeling by analogy demonstrated that incorrect values for the coefficients and innovation (p) and imitation (q) were assumed causing forecast of the new product sales to be overly aggressive. The forecast was aligned when the derived mathematical parameters were employed instead. Results demonstrate the utility of modeling for rational forecasting of sales and the value that modeling can provide in making informed resource planning and capital allocation decisions.

Use of Bass Modeling to Define and Analyze the Rate of Adoption for New Clinical Laboratory Markers